Why Brazil Loves Linux

[Disclosure: I am a dual American/Brazilian citizen. I've used Linux since 1996 and Microsoft products since 1990. I like both platforms.]

Brazil often makes Linux-related headlines, the latest being the adoption of KDE in Brazilian public schools. It’s clear that Brazil is enamored with Linux, but why? This is an important question for Microsoft since emerging markets are key to sales growth. Microsoft’s Annual Report 2007 reported that “impressive growth included India, China, and Brazil which all delivered revenue growth that topped 40 percent”, which is much faster than growth in developed countries. These markets are also friendly towards Linux and pose significant challenges for Microsoft. This post is my take on the reasons for Brazil’s fondness of Linux. I speak for Brazil since I was born and raised there, but I think much of this applies to the other BRIC countries and emerging markets in general.

The first and obvious argument is economic: free as in beer is a big deal in Brazil’s economy. The table below contrasts the economics of license costs in the US and in Brazil:

US Brazil
Gross National Income (GNI) per capita $44,710 $4,710
Cost of Windows Vista Business $186 $364
Cost of MS Office 2007 Standard $289 $587
Cost of Business Licenses as % of GNI per capita 1.06% 20.1%
Cost of Windows Vista Home Basic $116 $252
Cost of Office Home/Student $109 $117
Cost of Home Licenses as % of GNI per capita 0.5% 7.8%
All figures in US dollars. An exchange rate of USD$1 = R$1.70 was used to compute the cost of licenses in Brazil.

You might be surprised to learn that Microsoft licenses are nearly twice as expensive in Brazil in absolute terms. I imagine Microsoft charges about the same and Brazil’s brutal tax burden makes up the rest (the taxes are built into the price). But the interesting result is the relative price of licenses in each society, captured as % of GNI per capita. As a proportion of national incomes, business licenses are nineteen times more expensive to Brazilian society and home licenses are fifteen times more expensive. While GNI per capita is not a perfect figure, it reflects the incomes people make, how much they spend to live, and how much they pay in taxes. It is a crucial number when it comes to public policy; it’s not hard to understand why rational policies must dodge licensing costs when possible. If there’s any hope of widespread computer access, then surely we can’t expect people to spend 7.8% of their annual income on Microsoft software licenses alone. The burden on small businesses is also prohibitive. This order-of-magnitude difference is a fundamental problem that can’t be solved by piecemeal license giveaways. Suppose Microsoft gave out Windows and Office wholesale to all schools. Then what happens if those kids need a computer at home or in their parents’ business? License costs are simply out of whack with respect to most of society. Using Linux in public schools, rarely attended by richer kids, seems inescapable.

Notice that I didn’t use Windows Vista Starter Edition in the figures. This is because I find the limitation of three simultaneous programs absurd. It’s hard to believe Microsoft put in such an abominable restriction; it’s one thing to quietly omit features, it’s quite another to slap people on the face with “Sorry, no, only 3 programs! Click OK to continue.” Even the limited hardware supported by Vista Starter can easily run multiple programs, so that’s no excuse. I imagine a kid trying to learn programming in such a machine, trying to run a few tools plus a test application, and being told to bugger off. How is this bridging the digital divide? Besides, there are limitations on buying Vista Starter - a family receiving a donated computer, for example, cannot buy a retail version of it. And to cap it off, if they went ahead and bought OEM, the dollar figure for Vista Starter + Office Home comes to 5% of GNI per capita, still an order of magnitude above the US figure.

Looking at these numbers, you might wonder how Microsoft sales could grow 40% in Brazil last year - I mean, do they even have computers there? It turns out that Brazil has both the 10th largest economy in the world and the 11th worst distribution of income. There are wealthy households, businesses, and government departments to whom license prices matter far less. For example, after the dollar plunge the cost in dollars of a programmer in Brazil is close to that of one in the US, provided the employer is paying all taxes (the norm for mid-size and large businesses). These wealthier pockets comprise a sizable market whose landscape is more similar to the US: labor costs dwarf license costs, MS Office is a near-monopoly, and inertia is in Microsoft’s favor. Since this market is in Brazil’s economy the licensing costs still consume relatively more purchasing power, but Microsoft can definitely compete in these niches. Except there’s more to the story than economics.

Many cultural issues work against Microsoft to mobilize Brazilians in favor of the Penguin. I’ll hit up the three I deem biggest: 1) utter disregard for copyright, 2) strong anti-Microsoft feelings, and 3) Linux alpha geek monopoly. A thorny reality aggravates the first two issues: anti-American sentiment. It’s worth looking at this sentiment for context. The Pew Research Center runs the Pew Global Attitudes Project to track global public opinion on a variety of issues. Their latest report shows continued decline in US image, which has plummeted around the globe in the past 5 years. Here’s the data:

Anti-US sentiment in the world

I was shocked to see these results at first. Things might not be as bleak as the numbers suggest though. Some of the backlash is not structural, but rather directed at the current US Administration. It may well subdue come January 2009. Yet it’s important for American companies to factor this in when thinking about markets abroad. Nothing new there, except for how bad things got. Anti-American sentiment is particularly strong in 3 of the BRIC: Brazil, Russia, and China. (In Brazil this is only a political/ideological thing, one-on-one people are still as friendly as ever towards Americans and everyone else.) Keep these numbers in mind when thinking about the factors below, starting with disregard for copyright.

When I was growing up in Brazil, paying for software licenses was about as natural as a third arm growing out of your back. Whenever you needed software, you’d dial up a friendly pirate and buy a “collection” for, uh, $30. That included, my friends, instant home delivery: the guy would drive to your house and deliver the collection. If you were programming at night, he might even bring you a pizza. The best pirates had good access to the warez scene and could find anything in case you had a custom request. In the collection you’d find cracked versions of several major pieces of software from various manufacturers. How convenient. Borland Delphi? Check. Visual Studio? Check. Windows NT 4.0 Server, Workstation? Check. Linux? Check (saves you the download). It was like MSDN for the whole computer industry! The piracy happened regardless of income levels - people “buying” the software were by no means poor (otherwise they wouldn’t have a computer in the first place, at that point in time). Many could easily afford licenses, yet felt absolutely no qualms about piracy. The whole culture disregarded copyrights deeply. To most people, the pirate was doing honest work: downloading all this stuff, burning it, delivering it. An honorable job.

Things have changed since then, but not much. Copyright enforcement is more serious; piracy within mid-size or large businesses is rare. There is more copyright awareness (or indoctrination, depending on whom you ask). Home users still pirate anything they can though. This is not restricted to software either: visit any campus in Brazil and you’ll see rampant photocopying of text books. Street vendors sell DVDs filled with MP3s, movies, you name it. I’m sure Hollywood execs have nightmares where they’re roaming the streets of Brazil. The culture still expects free distribution and the environment is very hostile to proprietary software licenses.

Before Windows Genuine Advantage, Microsoft’s strategy was to ignore the pirates: sell to the corporations, let everyone else copy it. Now regular people are growing third arms and paying for Windows licenses. Fair enough: middle-class fat cats should not be ripping off your software. The trouble is that nowadays not all cats are fat: years of sound macroeconomic policy have allowed lower-middle-class people to buy computers. This is a change from when I was there. There are now many folks who, though not poor, definitely have a very hard time paying for licenses. They either go to Linux or go unpatched. The need to buy software would effectively keep these families out of computing: they do back flips just to get the hardware itself, in the hopes of giving their children a better shot. And richer people resent paying for software, however messed up that is. Every customer cut off by Windows Genuine Advantage is a possible conversion to Linux or at the very least a little more pressure towards migration. If people had to pay for Office too, there’d be gnashing of teeth. I’m not suggesting Microsoft is responsible for fixing severe income inequality or supporting middle-class free loaders; that’s just the nut they need to crack with a creative revenue model because Linux fits like a glove. On to the next issue.

Vista Starter Limits You to Three Programs
Vista Starter caps you at 3 programs. This is not how you win friends and influence people.

Brazil imported the anti-Microsoft stance common in American geeks, but on top of the usual arguments Microsoft is foreign. This adds fuel to the flame. To the Brazilian Microsoft hater, not only there is an “evil monopoly”, but its profits are repatriated and its jobs are elsewhere. Practices like the 3-program limitation on Vista Starter further erode good will (Brazilians call it the “castrated Windows” among other colorful names). Add a dash of anti-American sentiment and you’ve got some serious resistance. This fiery mood has a strong influence, from the teenager hanging out in #hackers on Brasnet to IT departments to the federal government. Even in a rational self-interest analysis, one might rightly point out that if free/open source software (FOSS) were to wipe out Windows, negative effects on Brazil’s economy are likely minimal. The wealth, jobs, and opportunity created by Microsoft aren’t in Brazil (productivity gains might be, but that’s a whole different argument). The trade offs of a potential Linux/Google take over are different when there’s no national off-the-shelf software industry, plus Google’s revenue model works beautifully in a developing country. This mix of ideological and rational arguments torpedoes Microsoft’s support.

The third cultural issue working for Linux is more subtle. In the US people talk about Microsoft losing the alpha geeks, but in Brazil FOSS has already reached a near-monopoly on them. Again, the standard reasons apply but are augmented by the local realities. Before FOSS, interesting software work was very rare in Brazil and the chance to shape widely used products practically did not exist. Imagine a place where 80% of programmers build boring, low-powered line-of-business applications working in conditions exactly opposite of Peopleware. That’s the US. Make it 99% and you have Brazil. In the US we have a wildly dynamic economy full of start-ups and interesting companies soaking up talent fast, but not so in Brazil. David Solomon, co-author of Windows Internals, was working for DEC at 16. But what if there is no one building a kernel in a 3,000-mile radius? Emigration was the most realistic possibility for interesting work. A 16-year-old would have been out of luck.

The FOSS revolution plus the Internet changed all this. Now people in Brazil can actually develop interesting and widely used programs. We’ve got kernel hackers like Marcelo Tosatti, who maintained the 2.4 Linux kernel series, and Arnaldo Carvalho de Melo, who co-founded the Conectiva distribution. There are RedHat employees, Debian contributors, committers on various projects, and so on. Lua, the programming language, comes from Brazil. There’s a practical advantage in being able to, say, tune a distribution for a particular purpose (e.g., the distribution being delivered to public schools). But beyond that it’s inspiring to finally be able to work with talented people in cool projects and have a chance to participate, rather than be handed down a proprietary product built abroad over which you have zero control. People are excited about and grateful for this. By the time you mix up these elements nearly all talented CS students and alpha geeks are well into the Linux camp. Unlike the US, the dynamic economy isn’t there to add some fragmentation. When these people go on to make technology choices in government or industry, guess what they’ll pick?

So that’s it. I think these are the main factors in Brazil’s love affair with Linux: economics, disregard for copyright, anti-Microsoft sentiment, and massive alpha geek support. These factors feed off each other, all pushing towards Linux. Millions of kids using KDE would impact the work force eventually. If Microsoft is overzealous in their anti-piracy efforts, it might precipitate faster changes in this delicate market. Meanwhile, Google Docs and Open Office are catching on. There are tactical moves Microsoft could make to counter Linux momentum, like a more sustainable licensing model for homes and small businesses (maybe their announced annuity licensing?), better native branding, and perhaps some native development. But Google has done all three already and is very well-liked in Brazil despite the anti-US feelings. My Brazilian friends, even a pragmatic IT manager who plays poker with Microsoft Brazil employees, seem to operate on the assumption that an eventual Linux take over (with some combination of Google/Google Docs/Open Office) is just a matter of time. What holds it back is that all the factors discussed here can spark things up, but until desktop Linux is ready to catch on fire you get much hype and little change. The wood does seem drier and drier, so we’ll see. What do you think?

Comments

31 Responses to “Why Brazil Loves Linux”

  1. Tsu Dho Nimh on May 3rd, 2008 10:56 am

    What is the Brazilian government’s tax rate on the software?

  2. Renato on May 3rd, 2008 11:42 am

    The guy commenting above me beat me to the first point: the comparison of MS licensing prices is not fair if you don’t take out the tax rate out of the Brazilian price.

    My second point is that comparing licensing price to GNI per capita only proves that Brazil is a poor country, not that MS is expensive. It is a global economy after all: the price point chosen by MS to their products will determine what they think is their better balance for supply and demand in a *global* scale - though luck (for them) if the Brazilian buyer is left out of the party by that. If they were to charge different rates in different regions of the world would we be back to what, DVD region codes?

    As for the rest of the article, I think it was a well-made point about particular features of the Brazilian market that may facilitate the mass adoption of free software and linux on the desktop. However, Brazil is no different from other countries in respect of the other general challeges Linux faces, such as ease to use, hardware support, etc.

  3. Resuna on May 3rd, 2008 12:26 pm

    Renato: it doesn’t matter whether the relative high cost of Windows is due to Windows costing more or Windows being heavily taxed and the population being relatively poor, the result is that Windows is at a huge price disadvantage in Brazil. Economics, the “dismal science”, isn’t about what’s “fair”, it’s about what actually exists.

    It just happens this time that the “victim” of the economic equation is a big company rather than a poor worker, and somehow that makes it seem different, yes no?

  4. henrique on May 3rd, 2008 1:18 pm

    nevermind taxes or high prices in brazilian market. people buy popular PCs (getting cheaper and cheaper) running crappy Linux distributions (with no tech support of any kind) and fill them almost imediately with cheap or even free Windows pirate copies (still no support, but it’s something always a friend can help).

  5. Juan on May 3rd, 2008 1:19 pm

    “the comparison of MS licensing prices is not fair if you don’t take out the tax rate out of the Brazilian price.”

    I think it’s a very fair comparison because it’s the actual price people have to pay for their software in Brazil. They are not avoiding those taxes, they have to take them into consideration before buying a MS license.

    “My second point is that comparing licensing price to GNI per capita only proves that Brazil is a poor country, not that MS is expensive. It is a global economy after all: the price point chosen by MS to their products will determine what they think is their better balance for supply and demand in a *global* scale - though luck (for them) if the Brazilian buyer is left out of the party by that. If they were to charge different rates in different regions of the world would we be back to what, DVD region codes?”

    Expensive it’s something relative, things one considerate expensive, others considerate it cheap. And yes, for a poor country, Microsoft licenses are expensive. I am not saying a company should offer a different price in every country, but it’s obvious it will not compete as well in those countries simply because people can’t afford their products, so they will search a different solution. Which, is this case, it’s Linux.

    “Brazil is no different from other countries in respect of the other general challeges Linux faces, such as ease to use, hardware support, etc.”

    Well, is not like Windows it’s problems free, both Windows and Linux have a lot of problems. The difference it’s, people get Windows preinstalled so many problems gets taken care of before give it to the client, and Brazilian (or users in any other country) have access to the source code and can work on solve the problems instead of rely on a foreign company to do it for them.

  6. Gustavo Duarte on May 3rd, 2008 1:30 pm

    @Tsu Dho Nimh: The tax rate is not really on the software itself. The problem is that the overall tax rates in Brazil are higher, making all products more expensive. It’s not a specific software tax. It might be a duty/import tax, I’m not sure, they’ve got a labyrinthine tax system down there. None of this really matters though per Resuna’s point.

    @Resuna, @Juan: right on.

    @Renato: hi there. Taking out the tax rate still leaves prices as a huge proportion of GNI per capita, but more importantly, the taxes are a reality and it’s what the consumer ends up paying. Since Linux is free as in beer, that goes away with Linux. Whether any of this is “fair” I don’t know, my point is the disconnect between proprietary license prices and Brazil’s economy.

  7. Petrosky on May 3rd, 2008 3:54 pm

    Gustavo,
    As you show up in the first chart, US GNI per capita is pratically 10 times Brazil’s, and almost all prices seem to be placed wrongly on the opposite column, even disproportionally if you change them sidewards.

    About the tax rating on imported goods, it has something to do with self protection, of course. But I ask you, do we ‘produce’ our own Brazilian operating systems or other software mentioned above? Even the KDE is adopted for our schools. Who would dare to ‘create’ one in the middle of so many free distribuitions? Shouldn’t the MS prices be “a bit” lower? Sure!!!

    Something must be done, no matter by lowering tax rates or prices, unless FOSS does it. Unless the people do it by avoiding MS products and gathering open source software, mainly when a Linux LTS 8.04 is just around, much better than many think about.

    Gustavo, great for your initiative to open our reality on this point to the world.

    Thanks!

  8. girino.org » Blog Archive » Windows == 20% do PIB per capita on May 3rd, 2008 7:24 pm

    [...] link [...]

  9. Rosco on May 3rd, 2008 7:57 pm

    I think you are missing an important point, which may also answer why people remain passionate about FOSS long after their initial reasons for getting involved (covered by your analysis) have subsided. FOSS gets better as more people use it because more people are available to contribute to it while, at the same time, every contribution however small becomes more valuable.

    Computer science is a basic subject in education these days just as “reading, writing and arithmetic” has been for centuries. Every kid knows (or should know) computers and how to program them.

    With proprietary software you restrict involvement to only those who choose computer science as a career. With FOSS anyone can get involved and contribute, and you don’t need to be an alpha-geek. In numerous projects even non-programmers are contributing by contributing the user guides, art work, advocacy, marketing, quality testing, or just contributing feature ideas or providing feedback on how they use the product in the real-world.

    If you understand what technology really is then you will appreciate how the FOSS community model works so much better than the proprietary model for commodity products.

    So what is technology? It’s just ideas that are put to use (in ways that are repeatable, i.e. products).

    Why is FOSS better for this as a model? In the proprietary model you only get to use the product but not the ideas that the product is built on. With FOSS you get both the product and the ideas, plus a bonus - insight into how the ideas are translated into the product. You get three fundamentally life-changing things rather than just one.

  10. Gustavo Duarte on May 3rd, 2008 10:33 pm

    Petrosky: I’m glad you liked the post. De nada ;)

    Rosco: These are good points. There is a whole lot of discussion I left out of this post, not least of which because it was already 2am heheh. I tried to stick with what I saw were clear, immediate reasons though.

    The discussion on social/economic aspects of open source is fascinating, but broad and complicated. I do hope to write more on this some time… for now some nice technical posts would be great because bits and bytes are a lot easier than messy humans.

  11. Girino on May 4th, 2008 8:01 am

    As you took time to visit and comment on my site, i’ĺl share some of my experience with open source and government in Brazil.

    Being a public servant since 2006, I found out that sometimes the choice in government agencies for open source/free software has nothing to do with laws, policies or technical reasons. It’s about timely deploy and continued service. What usually happens is that buying proprietary software needs to go trough an expensive and time consuming bureaucratic process (called licitação) that will take in the best 6 months, but usually much more (in our agency it takes usually 1 to 2 years for software, while hardware is less lengthy, taking 6 months to a year).

    Also, the heads of departments and directors change often due to political agreements (whenever there’s a state secretary change, all the bosses are changed). This usually comes accompanied by a change in focus, canceling of projects currently being developed and starting of new projects. And thus, licensing and upgrades of software products get also canceled. What’s the solution we found for the long term? Open source! thatś the only way we can guarantee that the software will continue running even if the licenses are not renewed. that’s the only way we can guarantee updates to the software.

    So while government might not be contributing much to the open and free software movements in Brazil, it is a great consumer of OSS. For the wrong reasons, of course…

  12. James Polk on May 4th, 2008 8:03 am

    Excellent article, thank you.

    The statistics makes the point very compellingly. I suspect it would be even more so if one would compare the price with purchasing power, and use the median over the average (the number of operating system “sales” be it linux or MS is spread more or less over the number of users, not over the income of each user).

    Further, only the part of the income available after a person have paid for subsistence is relevant.

    On top of this comes the fact that hardware might come at a rather low cost, far lower than is generally calculated, since perfectly well working computers can be collected as garbage in western countries - as an example, this works for most every single crt.

    Point is, the 20 factor is likely rather low, even considering the income distribution in the states.

  13. Think Vista’s Too Expensive? Try Living In Brazil. « The Brainwrecked Tech on May 4th, 2008 8:19 am

    [...] Find out exactly why Brazil loves Linux. [...]

  14. HangLoose on May 4th, 2008 12:42 pm

    “A thorny reality aggravates the first two issues: anti-American sentiment”

    This was the MOST stupid part of the article.

    NO ONE, believe me, NO ONE of my friends would EVER stop using MS Windows because they disagree with the political views of US. So anti american sentiment means that they wont use google, yahoo and other companies based in US ?!

    Maybe Linux aficionados do use this excuse just to justify their reasons to be using Linux…

  15. Nichol Draper on May 4th, 2008 12:48 pm

    It’s not surprising that Brazilians like Linux. It’s surprising that Microsoft is growing there. 20 years ago I was an early developer of applications for Microsoft windows. It has become clear in the US that if you really come up with a great idea, a clone will show up bundled with windows by Microsoft. Even the logo for the company I worked for showed up in a modified version in a MS Windows release. So about 10 years ago, the startup money moved away from applications for Microsoft windows products. That’s why even Google doesn’t go against Microsoft in the traditional model of applications sales.

  16. lingghezhi on May 4th, 2008 2:44 pm

    castrated windows…lol..

  17. Gustavo Duarte on May 4th, 2008 6:56 pm

    @girino: thanks for this explanation, that’s pretty interesting. I guess there’s a lot of flexibility in “free as in beer”, and this is one instance of it. Abraco.

    @James: cool, I’m glad you liked the post. Those are good points about the statistics. There’s a lot to work with here, looking at disposable income is interesting, and the distribution of incomes - instead of a dumb average like GNI per capita - is definitely the way to go if someone wants to take a more serious look at this stuff.

    @HangLoose: anti-US views contribute in two ways: 1) when it comes to copyright, people in emerging markets are less willing to play along because they know the money is not staying in their country. This is a common thing, plenty of people within these countries argue that they _should_ ignore copyrights and other intellectual property laws since economically they’re disproportionately in the paying end of things and not so much in the receiving end. The “fairness”, or lack thereof, of any of this I won’t touch with a ten-foot pole. Now if you compare, say, views of the EU and the US in the Pew report, you might see how when the copyright belongs to an American company people might even less inclined to go along with IP laws.

    The second way anti-US sentiment shows up is in anti-MS rhetoric. Are those poor grounds for a technical/economic decision? Probably, but it does happen, and not only among people’s friends, but among government officials too.

    Regarding other brands, there’s wide variation in how much brands get affected by this. Of course Microsoft’s brand problems are not restricted to Brazil. The anti-US thing becomes one more thing. Google, on the other hand, is well-liked, perhaps too well liked. Of course, Google doesn’t depend on respect for copyrights to make money, nor do they depend on licenses…

    It’s impossible to measure the effect of “anti-US sentiment”, but based on conversations in Brazil, reading the Brazilian press, and so on, I do think it plays a role.

    Nichol: Microsoft has a large installed user base, and as the economy grows and the installed computer base grows, it’s natural that their revenue would grow along. Also, I’m sure Windows Genuine Advantage brought a lot of paying customers along. It’ll be interesting to see how things go after the first wave of WGA folks bought their licenses. 40% is a heck of a lot of growth, Brazil GDP growth was around 4% last year if I remember right. It’d make sense if a lot of the 40% were people paying up due to WGA.

    lingghezhi: hahahah. You should see some of the jokes they come up with…

  18. n on May 4th, 2008 6:58 pm

    A well researched and informative article, backed with data. Kudos!

  19. Brazil, Free Software and "Castrated Windows" | Uncategorized | Fair or Unfair on May 5th, 2008 6:26 am

    [...] terms of free software. Details have been dribbling out here and there, but this is by far the best summary of the situation there: Brazil imported the anti-Microsoft stance common in American geeks, but on [...]

  20. gringinho on May 5th, 2008 10:27 am

    Excellent article. But, one thing that you failed to mention, or failed to adequately capture, is that the economic issue is really IMHO a side issue. (I am a frequent traveler to Brazil, and married to one :)) and the growth in linux in Brazil is certainly NOT driven by the lower middle class, they will “buy” Windows from the pirates so as to whitewash any impression that they cannot afford to buy a computer from a store, perish the thought that they could not afford a Windows License.

    Linux has been driven by wealthy (relatively) upper-middle class Alpha geeks who find the closed-source model unpalatable. It goes to something deeper in Brazilian culture, a more collectivist, less individualistic attitude, which is fertile ground for collective software works, like GNU/Linux. Not only that, but it provides Brazilians with a fun sort of revolutionary standpoint, rising up against a great power and thumbing their nose at authority.

  21. groove armada on May 5th, 2008 12:29 pm

    Why Brazil Loves Linux?

    es.youtube.com/watch?v=ObcC441YIvs&NR=1

  22. Technology Liberation Front » Archive » Free Software vs. the Tax Man on May 5th, 2008 2:46 pm

    [...] recently linked to this comparison of the cost of Windows in Brazil and the US. This brings to mind a point I think I’ve seen [...]

  23. Gustavo Duarte on May 5th, 2008 4:03 pm

    n on: thanks :)

    gringinho: good points, you clearly know Brazil hehe. Here are my thoughts:

    I wouldn’t go so far as to call the economic issue a side issue. As long as lower-income folks can get by with pirate Windows, then yes, they’ll do it. But with Windows Genuine Advantage the free-for-all piracy has ended, it’s getting harder and it sounds like Microsoft may take it up a notch or two. In _those circumstances_ I do think lower-income people will flock to Linux. At present, it’s not so strong, you’re quite right, even because these people are not tech savvy and unlikely to go mess around with this “obscure OS” hehe.

    And the computer user base keeps growing and including ever-poorer folks. Check the Economist article from last year, “Goodbye poverty, Hola Consumption” for some interesting stuff on this. Again, piracy is the only way these guys can stomach proprietary software.

    Also the economic issue is not limited to households. You must think of the government… tax collection happens on a $4k GNI per capita reality, and govt expenditures on software licenses must work within that reality.

    Computer donations is another thing… I am myself working to try to get some hardware donations going on to Brazil, but I don’t get any licenses. There are too many ways in which Brazil’s poverty come up, it’s in the fabric of society and is incompatible with these costs.

    It all depends a lot on how much piracy MS allows (which in the past has been “all the piracy households want”, but changed).

    Concerning the “revolutionary / rising up” cultural factors, yes, I definitely think those exist as well. I don’t know that I’d call Brazil very collectivist though… there are elements of that, and there are elements of a nasty selfishness. I find Americans very cooperative and in some ways _more_ collectivist, despite the “rugged individualism” mantra. These are complex issues of course, to nail down subtle cultural aspects.

    @groove armada: cool video. I use MS-Windows on the desktop myself, so I miss out on all the X/KDE goodness. At least I have cygwin, putty, Vim, etc.

  24. BMoro on May 6th, 2008 4:46 am

    Very good article, I’d like to translate a part of it and give the link for it in my blog. Do you think it would be ok?
    I would also try to give some numbers for my own country (Romania) which is just two positions above Brazil concerning GNI.
    Could you give me details about the licenses used for the comparison, maybe a serial number?

    Best regards,
    BMoro

  25. Boycott Novell » Links 06/05/2008: OpenSolaris 2008.5 Reviewed; Microsoft Lost $24,000,000,000 in Market Value Since Yahoo! Bid! on May 6th, 2008 9:02 am

    [...] Why Brazil Loves Linux [...]

  26. Gustavo Duarte on May 6th, 2008 12:20 pm

    @BMoro: that is totally fine. Regarding the licenses, the prices in the table are actually links, so if you click on them it’ll show you the exact product. Hope that helps, cheers.

  27. Kevin on May 7th, 2008 7:17 am

    My oh my. This has got to be one of the most interesting debates I’ve seen of late. All involved seem to be well informed and passionate on the Linux vs Microsoft matter.

    All I can do is sit back and think of peanut butter and cheese.

  28. BMoro on May 8th, 2008 1:17 am

    Thanks a lot! It seems the numbers for Romania are far worse than Brazil: Cost of Business Licenses as % of GNI per capita - 27.2 %
    Cost of Home Licenses as % of GNI per capita - 12.1 %.

  29. BMoro's Blog on May 8th, 2008 4:11 am

    De ce Brazilia prefera Linuxul…

    Articolul dupa care am facut adaptarea prezinta o analiza a pietei IT in Brazilia in ceea ce priveste…

  30. Karl O. Pinc on May 10th, 2008 12:24 am

    I don’t understand your argument that widespread disregard of copyright is advantageous to Linux and disadvantageous to Microsoft. If somebody pirates Microsoft Software it costs Microsoft nothing and increases their user base. It would be different if the pirates were paying for Microsoft software before they started pirating, but this is clearly not the case. A larger user base benefits Microsoft even if they derive no immediate revenue. So piracy helps Microsoft.

    Discouraging piracy is what hurts Microsoft. (Like Windows Genuine Advantage? Didn’t I read MS was now allowing software updates of unregistered products?) Those markets, the well off alpha geek, the government, that don’t pirate is where Microsoft is hurting the most.

    What would the relative Microsoft/Linux market shares if you took pirated software out of the equation? If everyone who pirated Microsoft couldn’t?
    These are difficult numbers to obtain but are the most interesting because, in my opinion, once Linux gains a preponderance of users in these metrics it’s only a matter of time before the majority of the software pirates also switch to Linux. I would be interested in your guesses as to the numbers. It’s easy to guess wrong. Microsoft sells a _lot_ of software in every market.

    As a country gains wealth there’s more dis-incentives to the use of pirated software. This is what’s troubling Microsoft when it comes to the developing world.

  31. Beyond a Doubt: Free Software for a Free Society « colonos on May 10th, 2008 5:22 pm

    [...] take on software development and the business thereof” and he here writes why Brasil Loves Linux and GNU and all that jazz - this might be worth [...]

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